Dangerous liaisons in the Middle East: forget friends and foes; say hello to enemy of my enemy

Instability in the Middle East region has never been more complex than in these past 2 years, which have proven – if that was even necessary – that fragmentation can lead to a chaotic climate. Like the motion of the atoms, sometimes impossible to predict, the dramatic unfolding of events in Syria and Iraq has lead to peculiar short-term alliances. Understanding what is going on is crucial for Europe’s security in the near future.

The conflict in Syria began slowly during the Arab Spring, in 2011 consuming lives and recourses like any civil war would do, especially if spiced up with some new type of radical fighters. Meanwhile, Iraq was a mess – with a post-war violence surging so much that the economy and stability could not show any kind of recovery.

Things continued in a similar manner, yet without important developments, until the very interesting spring and summer of 2014 when new events established the premises of the current situation. Russia invaded Crimea and prompted an urban guerilla type of civil war in Eastern Ukraine, causing the Western world (the EU and NATO) to engage in sanctions and to acknowledge the new power ambitions of their neighbouring superpower. Iranians chose a new and more moderate president – Hassan Rouhani in 2013– which started a clever PR campaign next year in order to get the sanctions lifted for his country, which was sinking in debt and growing economic and social struggles. It’s worth remembering that Iranians and Russia were providing military aid to the Damascus regime led by Bashar al Assad, and maintained their indisputable support for the Syrian president, from the start until present times.

This stable love triangle between Syria, Russia and Iran is not hard to understand given the fact that Russia needed to become the no 1 voice in the Middle East affairs, a region where Continue reading →

Iranul: mielul sau lupul cu blană de oaie?

La o primă vedere, mulţi sunt tentaţi să privească politica internaţională a Iranului ca fiind influenţată decisiv de ideologie – în acest caz cea de sorginte şiito-islamică. Totuşi, ultimele luni au demonstrat opiniei publice internationale că liderii iranieni sunt capabili a oferi lumii, o lecţie fină de pragmatism în relaţiile diplomatice cu statele din regiune, precum şi cu marile puteri occidentale.

După peste trei decenii marcate de adânci transformări interne, dominate de întoarcerea spre un conservatorism religios care aminteşte de vremuri întunecate din istoria lumii, Iranul se află astăzi într-un punct de cotitură ,cel puţin în ceea ce priveşte politica sa externă. Alegerea noului preşedinte, un apropiat al liderului religios suprem, Ayatollah-ul Khamanei, a determinat o schimbare aproape instantă a abordării relaţiilor cu restul statelor. Continue reading →